ALIN Legislative News
From Tashkent State University of Law
Environmental
Liability Insurance and Digital Governance Resilience: Legal Regulation of
AI-Driven Risk Assessment Systems in Asia's Disaster-Prone E-Government
Infrastructure
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY FOR POLICY-MAKERS
The Problem: ASEAN's disaster prediction infrastructure processes data triggering
multi-million dollar insurance payouts under SEADRIF, which distributed USD 2
million to Lao PDR within six days in September 2025 based on official
government data on disasters[1], yet
operates without mandatory cybersecurity standards. SEADRIF's new parametric
insurance policy triggers payouts based on the annual aggregate number of
people affected by disasters as reported through government agencies[2], creating unprecedented liability exposure when these systems are
compromised. A single AI system breach could simultaneously violate
international obligations, trigger erroneous insurance payouts exceeding USD 16
million per event, and endanger lives—with no legal framework for allocation.
The Regulatory Gap: Three critical systems operate in complete isolation:
- Disaster management (AADMER Work Programme
2021-2025 focuses on disaster risk reduction capabilities through
inter-sectoral cooperation and scalable innovation[3]) - but contains no cybersecurity provisions for AI-powered early
warning systems
- Insurance mechanisms (SEADRIF provides up to
USD 16 million in financial protection against flood, tropical cyclone,
earthquake, landslide, and related perils[2]) - but lacks data integrity verification protocols for AI-generated
forecasts
- Cybersecurity frameworks (ASEAN Cybersecurity
Cooperation Strategy 2021-2025 emphasizes protecting national and
cross-border Critical Information Infrastructure[4]) - yet meteorological and disaster prediction systems are excluded
from CII designation
The Urgency: The 13th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management convened on 15
October 2025 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, commemorating 20 years of AADMER[5]. ASEAN Regional CERT was operationalized with the objective of enhancing
collaboration among member states and facilitating real-time information
sharing to strengthen preparedness against cyberattacks[6]. Yet cyberattacks in Southeast Asia are projected to continue rising with
increasing sophistication, particularly targeting critical sectors such as
finance, healthcare, and logistics[7]. The regulatory void exposes all member states to cascade liability.
The Solution: Integrated Three-Tier Liability Framework:
1. Ex-Ante Prevention - Mandatory CII designation
for disaster prediction systems with alignment to standards like ISO/IEC 42001,
NIST AI Risk Management Framework, and regional laws[8]
2. Incident Response - Graduated notification
requirements (6/48-hour timeline) coordinated through ASEAN Regional CERT which
aims to facilitate real-time information sharing[6]
3. Liability Allocation - Clear rules establishing
government, vendor, and insurer responsibilities
The Implementation Path: Fastest adoption via ASEAN Digital Ministers' Meeting framework which
emphasizes strengthening regional cooperation on cyber capacity building and
efforts to protect critical infrastructure[9], leveraging existing institutions—no new regional bureaucracy required.
The Ask: Endorse framework principles at 21st ALIN General Assembly (November
27-29, 2025, Vientiane); task ASEAN Cyber-CC with drafting implementation
protocol; pilot through Singapore-Malaysia meteorological cooperation.
ABSTRACT
The proliferation of
artificial intelligence in government infrastructure has created unprecedented
vulnerabilities, particularly as Southeast Asia experiences a surge in cyber
threats targeting critical sectors[7]. This article identifies a critical legal lacuna at the intersection of
three historically distinct regulatory domains: disaster risk management,
cybersecurity governance, and insurance contract enforceability.
AI-powered early warning
systems now serve as authoritative data sources for multi-million dollar
insurance triggers, with SEADRIF's groundbreaking parametric insurance using
reported disaster impact data to trigger payouts up to USD 16 million[2]—yet these systems operate without mandatory cybersecurity standards, data
integrity protocols, or liability allocation mechanisms upon compromise.
Through comparative analysis
of EU cyber-resilience legislation and systematic examination of AADMER's
framework for building disaster-resilient nations through enhanced capabilities
and coordination among member states[3], regional cybersecurity strategies emphasizing Critical Information
Infrastructure protection[4], and national legislation, this research establishes that disaster
prediction systems constitute a regulatory blind spot despite having financial
significance equivalent to banking infrastructure.
ASEAN countries are enhancing
cybersecurity regulatory frameworks with AI-driven threat intelligence
integration, yet continue to grapple with regulatory fragmentation that
complicates cross-border collaboration[10]. High-profile cybersecurity incidents are increasing in frequency across
Asia Pacific, with over 57,000 ransomware incidents in the first half of 2024
alone[11], demonstrating that these threats are urgent and real.
The article proposes an
integrated Three-Tier Liability Framework grounded in principles of digital
service provider accountability, governmental duty of care for critical
information infrastructure, and insurance contract conditionality. This
framework addresses the cascade liability problem whereby a single system compromise
triggers simultaneous breaches of international disaster management
obligations, national cybersecurity duties, and insurance payout obligations.
With ASEAN's recent
operationalization of Regional CERT to enhance cybersecurity collaboration and
the continued emphasis on generative AI governance[6], the timing is critical for implementing comprehensive legal mechanisms.
The framework fills the jurisdictional void between meteorological agency
mandates, disaster management legal instruments, and cyber law enforcement
mechanisms, providing ASEAN member states with a legally operative model for
allocating responsibility when algorithmic failures in state-controlled
prediction systems cause insurable loss miscalculation.
Keywords: artificial intelligence liability; critical infrastructure protection;
disaster risk insurance; cyber-physical systems; governmental digital
accountability; ASEAN legal harmonization; algorithmic governance; cascade
liability doctrine
REFERENCES FOR EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY & ABSTRACT:
[1] SEADRIF. (2025). SEADRIF's
New Policy Delivers US$2M Payout to Lao PDR in 6 Days. https://seadrif.org/
[2] SEADRIF. (2025). Lao
PDR and SEADRIF Sign Sovereign Disaster Insurance with World First Reported
Impact Trigger.
https://seadrif.org/news/lao-pdr-and-seadrif-sign-sovereign-disaster-insurance-with-world-s-first-reported-impact-trigger/
[3] PreventionWeb. (2022). ASEAN
Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) Work Programme
2021-2025.
https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/asean-agreement-disaster-management-and-emergency-response-aadmer-work-programme-2021
[4] ASEAN. (2022). ASEAN
Cybersecurity Cooperation Strategy 2021-2025.
https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/01-ASEAN-Cybersecurity-Cooperation-Paper-2021-2025_final-23-0122.pdf
[5] ASEAN. (2025). Chairman's
Statement of the Thirteenth ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management.
https://asean.org/chairmans-statement-of-the-thirteenth-asean-ministerial-meeting-on-disaster-management-ammdm-and-fourteenth-meeting-of-the-conference-of-the-parties-cop-to-the-asean-agreement-on-disaster/
[6] Cyble. (2025). ASEAN
Unites Against Cybercrime: New Security Pathways.
https://cyble.com/blog/united-against-cybercrime-asean-ministers-forge-new-security-pathways/
[7] Tech Collective. (2025). AI-powered
Cybersecurity is Essential Infrastructure in SEA.
https://techcollectivesea.com/2025/06/03/ai-powered-cybersecurity-southeast-asia/
[8] AI Governance Library.
(2025). 2024 CCAPAC Report: AI and Cybersecurity.
https://www.aigl.blog/2024-ccapac-report-ai-and-cybersecurity/
[9] U.S. Department of State.
(2024). Co-Chairs' Statement on Fifth U.S.-ASEAN Cyber Policy Dialogue.
https://2021-2025.state.gov/co-chairs-statement-on-fifth-u-s-asean-cyber-policy-dialogue/
[10] The Cyber Express.
(2025). Cybersecurity In ASEAN: Balancing Innovation And Risk.
https://thecyberexpress.com/asean-nations-are-adopting-ai-and-zero-trust/
[11] Access Partnership.
(2025). The Top Four Cybersecurity Fronts Shaping Asia Pacific in 2025.
https://accesspartnership.com/opinion/the-top-four-cybersecurity-fronts-shaping-asia-pacific-in-2025/